Insight

An uncertain Parliament – testing the Government’s credibility

By Simon Burton OBE,

Senior Counsel

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

One of the central measures of the strength of a government is its ability to get legislation through the Commons with minimal pushback from MPs. Strong administrations get their way and are given the benefit of the doubt even when pursuing difficult choices. A weak administration is forced to compromise.

Last year’s general election result was decisive. Labour’s working majority of 165 seats in the House of Commons is comparable only to those won by Tony Blair in recent history, and much larger than those achieved by the Conservative Party at any stage of their 14 years in office. Such dominance and so many brand-new MPs with no knowledge of parliamentary process would provide the Prime Minister the authority, opportunity, and space to implement his agenda.

But as we approach July and the first anniversary of their historic election victory, things haven’t panned out as Number 10 hoped. The Parliamentary Labour Party is asserting itself over the Government rather than the other way round.

The fact that the second reading of a bill is in doubt after only a year in office is staggering. The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill next week should be a complete non-event. A government has not been defeated on a second reading since Thatcher’s efforts to liberalise Sunday trading hours in 1986 – yet should they proceed with the second reading, it is possible that Starmer will find he has more in common with Thatcher than just landslide election victories.

It is worth reflecting on how we got here as well as what all this means.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, we should remind ourselves that while Starmer enjoys a huge majority in Parliament, his MPs individually sit on narrow majorities in their constituencies. This makes them more reactive to the views of constituents and the popularity or otherwise of decisions. New MPs have been asked to support a range of policies that were either not in the manifesto or feel counter-intuitive for a Labour Government including the scrapping of winter fuel payments for pensioners, reducing international aid contributions, and increasing National Insurance costs for employers. Despite not being in control of the policy decisions, MPs receive the backlash on the doorstep and in their inboxes – which does nothing to boost morale.

The politics from Number 10 have also been largely absent.

Distractions like accepting free tickets, glasses and suits – as well as the departure of the PM’s first Chief of Staff, Sue Gray – have been compounded by the lack of a compelling vision for MPs to sell to voters. Combined with bad local election results in May and the rise of Reform, Labour MPs will be feeling that they cannot trust ministerial colleagues to make popular decisions which will lead to their own re-election when the time comes – leaving them feeling vulnerable with nothing to lose by rebelling.

Beyond simply the number of signatories keen to kill the bill at second reading, the Whips’ Office will be worried – and Number 10 even more so – about the breadth of the names from across the PLP. The amendment has been signed by experienced Select Committee chairs, lots of new MPs, as well as the ‘usual suspects’ from the left of the Party, and those who may harbour personal grudges. It is quite the mix that has found common cause here, making concerns much harder to dismiss.

The huge majority secured just 12 months ago was to usher in a new age of stability. Under previous governments we had become used to rebellions and resignations – and while not yet anywhere near that scale – the current parliament feels fractious. It is far from being the grateful rubber stamp that Starmer and his top team possibly assumed it would be this time last year. Emboldened by U-turns such as on winter fuel payments, MPs will believe that by exerting pressure, Ministers will fold. Once embedded, this frame of mind is difficult to shift.

There will be anxiety in the Treasury too. Without these welfare savings, they will have to find £5 billion from elsewhere – a tall order for a budget statement in the autumn that was already looking tricky. The fiscal rules that gave the markets confidence have boxed the Chancellor in – and after a tight CSR it is difficult to see where savings on this scale can come from within the confines of the Manifesto. The invidious choice of difficult savings or more unpopular tax rises will loom large in Number 11 over the summer months.

For businesses and outside observers the lesson here is not to lose hope if it looks like the Government is not listening. MPs are demonstrating their independence which, while disappointing for the Prime Minister and Chancellor, does mean that there will be future opportunities to engage and force a compromise. The fear with a huge majority is always that Parliament can be sidelined. Yet over the past year MPs have forced several rethinks from Number 10 and Peers have also played their part when looking at legislation.

In his first address to the nation as Prime Minister, Sir Keir promised a politics that would ‘tread more lightly on your lives’. It doesn’t look like his MPs were listening, resulting in a parliamentary landscape that continues to be both unpredictable and uncertain.

Simon Burton OBE, Senior Counsel at Lexington, is a former Government Special Adviser in DfT, The Government Whips’ Office, and Number 10 Downing Street, 2014-22.